Bi Hongbing, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information
[introduction] short-term decline in profit of galvanized sheet coil with long processPokerfreebonusIn the medium and long term, profit is in the downward channel, and the change of cost structure and the adjustment of market price play a joint role in the main factors affecting the change of profit. Cost is the bottom line in the price decline, and profit is the release of price rebound space. By analyzing the performance of the two, we can seek more opportunities for price changes.
Galvanized sheet coil bottomed out in the second quarter, and the cost effect still exists in this round. This paper comprehensively finds the cost effect performance by monitoring the proportion of different varieties of cost and the profit performance of galvanized coil industry.
Market prices stumble and rise in the short term
The market price of galvanized sheet coil has changed from falling to rising in a short time. As of April 26, the price of galvanized sheet coil in the mainstream market was 4800 yuan / ton, up 0% from the previous month.Pokerfreebonus.63%, down 4.38% from the beginning of the year and 4.95% from the same period last year. In terms of price and cost performance, the price increase of galvanized coil with month-on-month data was slightly lower than the cost increase of 3.83%. This is also a short-term galvanized sheet coil long process profits are directly related to the decline. The increase compared with the beginning of the year is also weaker than the cost change data. After the phased release of market demand, traders focus on the further performance of cost factors and the volatility of capital markets that affect market sentiment. From the short-term market prices and medium-and long-term moving average performance, the current market prices are still looking for support below the moving average.
Rising costs and declining profits in the transmission of the value chain
In the value chain transmission, the cost of galvanized coil increases and the profit decreases, and there is a certain deviation between the two. As of April 26, the cost of long-process galvanized coil was 4384 yuan / ton, up 3.83% from the previous month, down 10.56% from the beginning of the year, and 1.15% from the same period last year. The gross profit was 736 yuan / ton, down 19.79% from the previous month, up 5.36% from the beginning of the year, and 14.11% from the same period last year. From the trend, the trend of cost and profit appears in Fengnan District. The upward cost trend promotes the cost support of the overall galvanized coil price, but in the process of profit decline, we should also pay attention to the change of enterprise production schedule, and there is the expectation of supply reduction in the future, slightly supporting the rebound of the price.
The cost of long-process galvanizing the proportion of coke and iron ore decreased during the year
The proportion of coke and iron ore in the cost of long-process galvanizing has declined during the year, which has become an important factor affecting the recent market. As of April 26, the proportion of iron ore cost fell to 31.97% from 33.66% at the beginning of the year, while the cost share of coke dropped to 23.27% from 25.91% at the beginning of the year. According to the monitoring data of Zhuochuang Information, in the change of coke and iron ore cost proportion, the coke cost share has changed from higher than ore to lower than ore since January 19, 2023, and continues until now. This is related to some market attributes of raw material products. In the short term, after the third round of coke rise and landing, all parties are actively watching, resulting in the impact of short-term rise on cost share can not be ignored.
Zhuochuang monitoring data show that as of April 26, the cost of iron ore accounted for 31.97%, an increase of 1.66% from the previous month, a decrease of 1.68% from the beginning of the year, and an increase of 2.75% over the same period last year. As of April 26, the cost of coke accounted for 23.27%, an increase of 0.29% from the previous month, a decrease of 2.64% from the beginning of the year, and a decrease of 3.68% from the same period last year. As of April 26, the cost of zinc ingots accounted for 8.7%, up 0.22% from the previous month, 0.6% from the beginning of the year, and 0.31% from the same period last year.
In the short term, the cost share of the three main factors increased and decreased, especially the ore rebounded slightly faster. In the medium term, the change of coke cost ratio is slightly stronger than that of iron ore and zinc ingots. In the long run, the proportion of ore cost returns from the downward channel to the upstream channel, while coke is still in the downlink channel. On the whole, the cost of iron ore accounts for 31.97%, which is more than 23.274% of the cost of coke, which is more than 8.7%. At the same time, the cost of iron ore accounts for 31.97%, which is much higher than that of zinc ingots. The whole industry still focuses on the operation of iron ore and coke.
Generally speaking, the current galvanized coil market price has entered the consolidation stalemate stage, whether the price can continue to rise, we still need to pay attention to the joint influence of many factors. On the one hand, the price factor is still the king of transactions, especially after the continuous decline in the market in the first quarter, the dependence of brand resources on prices in the galvanized sheet coil market has been weakened and affected by many uncontrollable factors. in the real estate recovery continues to be slow, stable economy to promote consumption and so on have landed one after another, high temperature Rain Water season is expected to increase in the future, low prices on the terminal attraction is still self-evident. On the other hand, the influence of coke and ore among the cost supporting factors is still between Bozhong, with the partial recovery of international import and export trade, the cost trend is still uncertain. Considering that the current galvanized sheet coil market has been in full market competition, except for some middle and high-end automobile steel, household appliance steel and new energy photovoltaic steel, the common material galvanized sheet coil customers order less. There are still few new projects started during the year, and it is hoped that chain demand will be released by the start of large-scale projects before the end of June. Once the demand returns to normal in the future, with the rebound of industry profits, the phenomenon of lack of resources will be improved, and the overall supply-side recovery may continue to be stronger than the demand-side recovery. Prices will remain strong first and then weak for a long time until the contradiction between supply and demand tends to ease.