May 1: last trading Tuesday (April 30): international gold / Loco-London gold fell sharply and closed steadily, breaking the pattern of recent volatility and rebound, and made the bears stronger again, suggesting that the future will continue to look down, waiting for a further pullback.
In terms of specific trend, the price of gold opened in 2335 since the Asian city.P2egamelikesplinterlands.58 USD / oz, which first recorded an intraday high of US $2336.09, then continued to decline until the opening of US trading. After a short-term rebound, it fell again, falling below the US $2300 mark and weakening continuously, and finally reached an intraday low of US $2285.10 at the end of the day, and then closed at US $2286.17, with a daily amplitude of US $50.99, down US $49.41, or 2.12%.
Spot silver finally closed at the specific trend, the gold price since the Asian city opened at 2335.58 US dollars / ounce, that is, the first recorded intraday high fell 3.15% to 28.26 US dollars / ounce.
In terms of impact, it continued to fall under pressure from technical resistance and overall bearish data from Geneva, Asia, Europe and the United States, while the New Federal Reserve News Agency said the Fed intended to imply that interest rates would be "higher and longer." The market is betting that the Federal Reserve will send a hawkish signal this week that the dollar index will maintain its upward trend, breaking the 106 mark strongly and closing higher steadily, while 10-year Treasury yields also closed strongly higher. Suppress the gold price to fall below the 2300 mark, and finally close down.
Looking forward to today's Wednesday (May 1): international gold opened directly to stop falling and strengthening first. after a two-hour pause, the market made a profit.P2egamelikesplinterlandsClosing and low buying demand, as well as the dollar index rebound in early trading momentum slowed, while the performance rebound. At the same time, the sharp decline of the Dow Jones Index yesterday also supported it to a certain extent.
However, on the whole, the dollar index closed after a sharp rebound yesterday, breaking the pattern of recent pressure shocks and returning above the short-term moving average, making the bulls stronger again, turning bullish again, and at the same time, it also makes the bullish trend expected to be enhanced at the weekly and monthly chart level, suggesting that there will be a larger and sustained rebound in the future, which will have negative pressure on gold prices.
The 10-year yield of US debt, the daily chart also stopped falling mid-track support, and rebounded back above the short-term moving average. The Bollinger belt is expected to develop upward again and continue to maintain the upward trend, and the weekly chart does not fall below the 5-week moving average support, and the rebound trend is intact. The monthly chart also returns to the closing line above the May-October moving average, and the Bollinger belt opening is expected to start a continuous rebound, hitting 5% or higher. There will also be negative pressure on gold prices.
Therefore, for the price of gold, it will tend to fluctuate and fall.
During the day, we will focus on data such as US ADP employment in April (10,000), US Standard & Poor's global manufacturing PMI final value in April, US ISM manufacturing PMI in April, US March JOLTs job vacancy (10,000) and so on. The data are expected to be positive for gold prices as a whole, but according to yesterday's data performance, there is a high probability that they will go bearish. Or stop falling to maintain shock pressure, but will not be able to change the recent and future bearish callback point of view.
In addition, we will also pay attention to the late US trading and the announcement of interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve at 2: 00 a.m. the next day. Held a press conference on monetary policy with Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell.
Fundamentally, Fed officials keep talking about delaying interest rate cuts due to higher-than-expected inflation in the first three months of the year, leaving the market skewed towards this week's Fed's decision to keep the benchmark federal funds rate at around 5.3%, the highest level in more than 20 years. At the same time, Powell will also make a hawkish speech later, which further suppresses the gold price.
But everything is expected, and the focus of this meeting will be how Powell describes the outlook for interest rates. While most Wall Street strategists believe it is still possible to cut interest rates once or twice later this year, some believe the Fed may not cut interest rates at all, compared with a few weeks ago, with no clear signs of economic weakness.
Moreover, the Fed's interest rate outlook depends on its inflation forecast, and expectations of a Fed rate cut this year could be completely dashed if there is no evidence that the economy is slowing significantly.
As a result, Powell may also admit that officials are less determined about when and by how much. Increase the bearish pressure on the market. Although the prospect of raising interest rates is heating up again due to the absence of a new and severe supply shock in the market, the re-acceleration of wage growth and the expectation that inflation will continue to rise in the future. But as long as expectations of interest rate cuts are not raised, gold prices will still face downward pressure.
Technically: at the monthly chart level, after the gold price was pulled up outside the Bollinger belt in April, it normally walked out of the technical correction market in order to return to the Bollinger belt, and the current trend has also been verified, in line with personal expectations. At the same time, according to yesterday's emphasis, if the closing line in April is below $2300, the future will continue to be bearish and wait to hit $2080 and rise again.
If it falls below the support here, it will further covet to hit the 60-month or 100-month moving average and return to the bull market again. That is, it will be seen near or below $1900 at most, so approaching or below this position is also a bold entry waiting for the opportunity to climb again to refresh its all-time high.
Weekly level: gold prices bottomed out and rebounded last week, although the closing line reached the top of the 5-week moving average, but the bears still dominated, and the opening of the week also ran directly below the 5-week moving average, and the support became resistance. The attached indicator KDJ has turned to a dead cross, and the kinetic energy of MACD bulls slows down, suggesting that there is a risk expectation of shock pressure to go down again in the future.
At present, the trend this week also follows this signal to continue to fall, and the short signal is strengthened. If this momentum is maintained this week and continues to close below the 5-week moving average, it will further fall to the 10-week or midtrack support position.
If the detailed space is not strong enough or can not continue to pay attention to, add me to keep an eye on the market for you around the clock.
Daily line level: gold prices fell sharply yesterday to close below the 30-day moving average, and the bears strengthened. Although the ZZ index has already shown the signal of bottoming out, the main chart faces short-term moving average pressure, the Bollinger belt also opens downward, and the attached graphic indicators maintain the development of short signals, suggesting that it is early to see a stop rebound now, and below is expected to fall back near the 60-day moving average support before going to see the stop rebound. Until then, the high-altitude strategy will continue to be maintained.
Specific real-time order notice to pay attention to the actual warehouse guidance information.
Preliminary intra-day reference:
International gold: Focus on the top on resistance around US$2298 and resistance around US$2320; focus on the bottom on support around US$2279 and support around US$2252/2212;
International silver: Focus on the top on the resistance of US$26.65 and the resistance of US$26.95; focus on the support of US$25.85 and the support of US$25.45;