At the close of early trading, the main domestic futures contracts were mixed. Soda ash and transportation index rose by more than 4%, alumina by more than 3%, manganese silicon by more than 2%, glass and coking coal by more than 1%, palm oil by more than 2%, NR, rubber, live pigs, peanuts, vegetable oil, apples, caustic soda, PX0 > p-xylene (PX) by more than 1%.
How do institutions interpret the follow-up trend of soda futures?
Chaos Tiancheng futuresAbradoodlebingoIn high production and high inventoryAbradoodlebingoUnder the circumstances, it is recommended to go high in the air.
The weekly output of soda ash is at an all-time high, the supply and demand is rigid, and it is empty in the medium and long term. The price of Yuanxing has risen this week, and the manufacturers have speculated on overhaul. In the case of high production and high inventory, it is expected that the influence of hype is limited, hype gives short sellers a better opportunity to enter the market, and it is recommended to meet high altitude.
Zhengxin Futures: soda ash drive still lies in the supply side, and there is still a chance to rebound in 2009 during the maintenance period.
After the spot adjustment, the alkali plant receives new orders in general, and it is expected that the alkali plant inventory will not change much before the end of next month. Overall, the soda ash drive still lies in the supply side, with the end of partial maintenance in the short term, the overall output gradually increases, and the wait-and-see mood to the new price supply is stronger after the downstream replenishment, and the fundamental driver is weakened, but soda ash continues to rise in the short term under the mood of capital. Sound people choose 9-1 positive thinking, and if the disk is weak in the later stage, there is still a chance to rebound 09 during the maintenance period.
Hongye Futures: short-term fluctuations are expected to intensify, short-term need to take a good stop loss
Last week, the market rose strongly, and the logic of trading shifted from oversupply to tight supply balance during the maintenance season, thus providing support to prices. The center of gravity of the market quotation moves up, the inquiry order increases, and the high price is difficult to close the deal. Spot price increases, the range varies, the new price transaction is general, wait-and-see mood is heavy. The operation of the device is OK, and the load of individual enterprises is adjusted, and the overall output has little impact. Enterprise shipping, production and marketing are maintained, and inventory is hovering at a high level. Downstream demand performance is different, large enterprises wait and see, small business inventory is low, moderate procurement. It is expected that short-term fluctuations will intensify, short-term need to take a good stop.
Guoxin Futures: recently, the volatility of soda ash futures is relatively high, which has nothing to do with the current fundamental situation.
On the supply side, the weekly output of soda ash manufacturers has increased slightly, and the production profit is still considerable. The operating rate of downstream float glass enterprises has changed little, and the glass production and marketing situation has improved, mainly driven by speculative demand. The price of photovoltaic glass is rising, and the demand for soda ash is increasing steadily. Weekly inventory slightly downward, soda ash fundamentals do not fluctuate much. Recently, the volatility of soda ash futures is relatively high, which has nothing to do with the current fundamental situation. The long May Day holiday is coming and bulls use insurance factors to force short positions. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term.
Citic Construction Investment Futures: short-term soda ash fundamentals marginal improvement, disk volatility or aggravation
The short-term pressure of soda ash supply is slightly relieved. From a fundamental point of view, the output of soda ash increased by 0% month-on-month last week.Abradoodlebingo.80,000 tons to 71Abradoodlebingo. 40, 000 tons; downstream demand held steady, with the latest alkali plant inventory down 17900 tons from last Thursday to 873000 tons. Recently, the maintenance of soda ash has increased, and the output has decreased. Last week, float glass production line did not change, photovoltaic glass ignition 1 production line. Recently, the sum of daily melting of float glass and photovoltaic glass is running at a high level, the demand for heavy alkali remains high, the demand for light alkali is stable on a month-on-month basis, and the purchasing enthusiasm downstream has improved. From a macro point of view, the recent domestic real estate sales data rose slightly month-on-month, lower than the same period last year; foreign macro impact is negative (the dollar index is strong). Overall, the marginal improvement of short-term soda ash fundamentals, supply-side pressure slightly weakened, the number of contract positions in recent months is still slightly high, disk volatility or aggravation. Short-term soda ash prices are strong and volatile, SA2409 above focus on the pressure around 2250PY 2300, the previous multi-order continues to reduce positions, no participants wait and see temporarily.